Brexit, a decade-old decision, is now being questioned and reconsidered by some in the UK. The idea of rejoining the European Union (EU) has gained traction, with former Health Secretary Wes Streeting suggesting a “new special relationship” with the EU as a potential future for the UK. But how realistic is this, and what are the options on the table?
The Moonshot: Full EU Membership
Rejoining the EU as a full member is a challenging prospect. While not legally necessary, a referendum would be politically prudent to gauge public support. The bar for this support is high; a majority of 60-70% would be required to ensure a stable return. The EU, mindful of the UK’s previous departure, would seek strong guarantees that the UK wouldn’t leave again, which could prove a significant hurdle.
The process of accession is politically and diplomatically demanding, and many EU member states may prefer to focus their efforts on more critical issues, such as supporting Ukraine and Moldova, which are vital to EU security.
A recent survey highlights the divide: while a significant portion of Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green supporters favor a full return to the EU, only 53% of voters overall share this view. This indicates a potential challenge in gaining the necessary public support.
The Swiss-Style Halfway House
Switzerland, a non-EU member, recently negotiated a deal with the EU for “frictionless access” to the single market and participation in various EU programs. In return, Switzerland agreed to free movement of people and an annual contribution to the EU’s economic and cohesion funds. This model offers an attractive middle ground, but it was previously rejected by the UK due to its requirements for regulatory alignment and free movement.
The Norway-Style Halfway House
The UK could also consider rejoining the single market through the European Economic Area (EEA), as Norway, Liechtenstein, and Iceland have done. This would involve negotiating membership of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and accepting free movement, which has been a sticking point for the UK in the past.
Status Quo: Reset and Align
Continuing the current path of gradual alignment with the EU, as advocated by Keir Starmer, is another option. This approach, while politically expedient, has its critics who argue that it won’t significantly impact the economy or undo the damage caused by Brexit.
New Ideas and Opportunities
The Swiss deal highlights the EU’s desire for stability and efficiency in its relationships with third countries. It also shows that the EU is open to innovative solutions. The challenge for the UK is to find a model that balances its interests with the EU’s requirements for stability and cohesion. Personally, I think this is a fascinating opportunity to rethink the UK’s relationship with Europe and potentially forge a new path that benefits both sides.
